Munk Debates - Will the 21st Century belong to China?

On June 17, 2011 the 'Munk Debates' were held here in Toronto.

The topic of interest - 'Will the 21st Century belong to China?'

The speakers included:

Pro (In support of the question)

• Niall Ferguson - Professor of History and Business Administration at Harvard, as well as a Senior Research Fellow at many other institutes
• David Daokui Li - The Director of the Center for China in the World Economy at Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management in Beijing

Con (Not in favour of the question)

• Fareed Zakaria - Host of CNN's international affairs program
• Henry Kissinger - Formerly the 56th Secretary of State of the United States

To begin, both sides began with a six minute introduction of the arguments they would present. The nature of the arguments presented were complex, and furthermore the debate covered a wide array and plethora of factors such as: political, geo-politcal, economic, cultural and social factors. Overall, both sides represented themselves well; providing supporting facts and evidence, interpolating and extrapolating information, as well as providing historical context and content.

"The key to the twenty-first century lies in the decline of the west", remarked Ferguson. He noted the explosive growth in China's economy over the previous years, as well as its manufacturing sector as one of the most essential factors. Furthermore, he implied the downfall of the west due to their inability of managing liabilities.

In contrast, "most Asian 'tigers' have grown about 9% a year for about twenty to twenty-five years", stated Fareed Zakaria. He then continued by saying that "they then shift downwards to about 6% or 5% a year". In addition, he stated that China has a inefficient 'quality of growth' - simply put, they consume vast quantities of resources for small gains.

Aside from both those speakers, David Li and Dr Kissinger held the most unique views in my opinion. "China's emergence is not implying it will dominate", said Li. Kissinger agreed and praised China's success but argued that internal problems (an aging society, lack of jobs, extreme differences between advanced coastal regions and developing interior regions, and a vast migrant population) will inhibit China. "Together we will all own the century", Li concluded.

In the end however, the guest of honour, Henry Kissinger, and his debate partner Fareed Zakaria were announced the victors of the debate.

I personally found it difficult to establish either a definite 'yes' or 'no' response to this question due to the complexity of the factors involved. However, taking into account my personal knowledge of China as well as the arguments presented, I believe that China will play a predominant role, but  it in fact will not control the century.